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GRAINS http Commentary://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
March Corn closed up 2 1/2-cents at 3.55 1/2. March corn closed higher on Tuesday following this morning's neutral to friendly supply-demand report. The USDA estimates 2009-10 U.S. carryout at 1.719 billion bushels, compared to the average analyst estimate of 1.748 billion bushels and the USDA's January estimate of 1.764. The corn ending stocks were dropped by 50 million bushels, as ethanol usage was increased by 100 million bushels and exports were cut by 50 million bushels. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.42 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 3.68 1/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.47 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.42 3/4. March wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 4.82 1/4. March wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The USDA pegged the U.S. 2009-2010 wheat carryout at 981 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 973 million bushels and the USDA January estimate of 976 million. Wheat's supply-demand report was bearish but was close enough to the trade estimate. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, October's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/2. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.94 3/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.66 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.59. March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/2-cents at 4.90. March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the January 19th gap crossing at 5.11 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 4.75 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 5.03. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.80 3/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.75 1/4. March Minneapolis wheat closed down 6-cents at 5.05 3/4. March Minneapolis wheat closed lower due to profit taking following a bearish supply-demand report on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.16 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, September's low crossing at 4.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 5.16 3/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.97. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.93. SOYBEAN COMPLEX March soybeans closed down 5-cents at 9.24 1/2. March soybeans closed lower due to hedge-related selling and bearish supply outlooks on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The USDA projected 2009-10 soybean-ending stocks of 210 million bushels, down 35 million from the January estimate of 245 million. Analysts on average estimated ending stocks of 219 million bushels. Soybean exports were raised 25 million bushels to 1.400 billion, and soybean crush was raised 10 million bushels to 1.720 billion. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Despite today's setback, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this winter's decline, October's low crossing at 8.88 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 3/4. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 9.44. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 9.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.88 1/4. March soybean meal closed down $3.80 at $270.60. March soybean meal posted a key reversal down on Tuesday ending the rebound off last Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, October's low crossing at 262.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing near 278.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.90. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 265.60. Second support is October's low crossing at 262.00. March soybean oil closed up 43 pts. at 38.38. March soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extended Monday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.20. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rebound, the reaction high crossing at 39.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 38.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 39.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 37.20. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.97.
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